Tasmania’s Energy Emissions
Despite the majority of Tasmania’s electricity coming from clean energy, its gross per capita emissions are significant. Total emissions for the energy sector were 3,630,000 tonnes of CO2-e per annum comprising 1,750,000 tonnes for transport, 1,740,000 tonnes for direct combustion and 130,000 tonnes for electricity generation.
Tasmania’s Energy Mix
Adjacent to this were 1,560,000 tonnes of CO2-e from heavy industrial processes. This means that whilst Tasmania’s electricity generated on-island is near zero emissions, only about 40% of total primary energy consumption is met with clean energy, the rest comes from coal, oil and fossil gas.
Tasmania’s Energy Opportunity
Even in clean green Tasmania there is still work to do to transition the economy to a carbon zero economy. The good news is that this presents Tasmania with many opportunities to develop skills and knowledge for a low emissions world while creating high value, long term employment growth and economic benefit.
Carbon Zero Initiative’s Tasmanian Summary of the AEMO ISP 2024 - Step Change Scenario
Carbon Zero Initiative has produced a summary report of the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan (AEMO ISP) Step Change Scenario.
Report Highlights:
Tasmania's on-island energy demand is predicted to rise by 48% by 2035, and 55% by 2050. This additional demand will come from transitioning away from oil for transport, gas in our homes and businesses for heat, and coal in four large industrial plants across the state. The state's 200% renewable energy target is almost sufficient to meet this additional demand - 3509 MW to a modelled 7,888 MW.
Tasmania has a huge opportunity in rooftop solar where we can jump from laggard to leader. Tasmania has a great solar resource and significant potential for rooftop solar installations across the residential and commercial sectors. Rooftop solar is the most cost-effective way to generate electricity (Aurecon 2023-24). It reduces power bills, electricity waste, alleviates strain on transmission and has a very small land use impact.
In addition to the rooftop solar story, as Tasmania phases out oil, fossil gas and industrial coal we will create opportunities for Tasmanian businesses and on island innovation. If Tasmania wants to continue to lead the world and lock in our status as a low carbon innovation hub, we need to measure the scale of the opportunity and make sure we support the innovators who are leading the way.
Tasmania’s Future Energy Mix
Under the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan (AEMO ISP) Step Change scenario electricity consumption in Tasmania is forecast to increase by just over 55% by 2050, when compared to 2023 (10,468 GWh, growing to 16,193 GWh by FY 2050).
This is expected to be met with an increase in generation capacity of 1,700 MW of rooftop solar, 577 MW of utility scale solar, 1,800 MW of onshore wind and 419 of MW offshore wind, connected to 917 MW of firming capacity.
While total consumption in the residential and business sector is predicted to increase, the modelling predicts that this demand is more than fully offset by increased rooftop solar. Tasmania has a huge opportunity ahead in rooftop solar on residential and commercial premises and is currently lagging the rest of Australia in terms of capacity (kW) per head of population. This is currently the cheapest form of electricity generation, reducing demands on transmission and land use impacts.
Under Step Change, the consumption of electricity for green hydrogen production is modest, reaching 3,700 GWh by 2050 with 45% of that hydrogen being used in Tasmania for industrial high heat applications, and 55% exported (including in hydrogen derivatives like methanol and e-fuels).
CZI has modelled potential on-island consumption of green hydrogen. The corresponding electricity consumption represented in Step Change may be conservative, or underestimated if major industrials follow through with stated intentions to phase out coal and gas between now and 2030.
Electricity-related greenhouse gas emissions are low under Step Change, but not zero due to occasional use of open cycle gas turbines (such as the plant at Bell Bay) and persistent residential and commercial fossil gas use totaling 5,300 TJ (5.3 PJ) by FY 2041-2050. Emissions from the energy sector in FY2030 would be 500,000 tonnes CO2-e and would be around 200,000 tonnes CO2-e by FY2050, with cumulative emissions over the FY2024 – FY2050 period would be some 9.9 million tCO2-e. This excludes transport, and process emissions which are reported under a separate sector.
The default outlook for interconnector capacity under Step Change is Basslink and Marinus Stage 1. Both are features of the Step Change Least Cost (or CDP3) scenario in AEMO’s detailed ISP analysis. Marinus Stage 2 is described as ‘actionable’ but is not assumed to proceed.
CZI will include detailed modelling of interconnector capacity and its potential effect on generation capacity in a future report - the Carbon Zero Tasmania Report. In the Carbon Zero Tasmania Report, CZI will construct its own clean energy opportunities scenario for Tasmania including stationary and mobile energy. The report incorporates transport trends and models higher rates of electrification in the residential and business sector in line with existing commitments from major industrial energy users, as well as tackling some of the assumptions behind AEMO’s gas and green hydrogen forecasts.
