Tasmania’s Emission Reduction Plans
The Tasmanian Government recently closed the public feedback phase of its draft Emissions Reduction and Resilience Plans (ERRPs). The ERRPs became legislative requirements in 2022, when Tasmania’s new emissions target of net-zero or lower from 2030 was set.
Six sector-specific ERRPs have been developed by Renewables, Climate and Future Industries Tasmania (ReCFIT), a division of the Department of State Growth, in consultation with Tasmanian business and industry. These plans aim to reduce greenhouse gases and increase resilience to climate risks across energy, transport, industry, agriculture, land use and waste sectors. Carbon Zero Initiative contributed submissions to the ERRPs for energy, transport, and industry sectors. Here is what we found.
Tasmania uses a lot of fossil fuels. Despite Tasmania leading most of Australia in generating almost 100% of electricity from renewable sources on average, about 60% of the state’s total energy still comes from oil, coal and gas, which power vehicles, homes and heavy industry. This fossil fuel dependence is a key driver of Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The state’s emission data often present a ‘clean and green’ image, with Tasmania’s forests pulling down a lot of carbon. However, when these forest carbon offsets are excluded, Tasmania’s emissions are high. In fact, Tasmania’s gross per capita emissions are the same as the mainland average: ~15 tonnes per person, per year. Tasmania’s heavy industry is a significant contributor to this figure, with UTAS reporting that the state has some of the highest industrial emissions per capita in Australia.
Tasmania also falls short of meeting international obligations for the global carbon budget aimed at limiting warming to 1.5°C. In the State of the Environment Report, Carbon Accounting Expert and Principal at Sustainable Living Tasmania Todd Houstein found that Tasmania’s per-person emissions are 47% above our share of the global budget.
To cut emissions and help combat global warming, Tasmanian industry must reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and transition to clean energy. The most significant obstacle to this is arguably the lack of renewable electricity in key areas. Industry consumes vast amounts of energy in the forms of electricity and thermal energy from coal and gas for heat. Tasmania does not yet produce enough renewable electricity to meet future demands. According to our research, electricity consumption in the state is expected to rise by a minimum of 48% by 2035 and 55% by 2050, as electrification expands, and fossil fuels are phased out.
One industry example that highlights the urgent need for more renewable energy is Norske Skog’s Boyer paper mill. This mill near New Norfolk is one of Tasmania’s largest energy users and emitters. The operator has publicly stated that they intend to replace their coal-fired boiler with an electric boiler by the end of the decade. This transition would be a big win for Tasmania and create new jobs in the process. However, the biggest challenge is securing sufficient renewable energy to power the new boiler. The company must be able to access reliable and affordable electricity to power the new boiler, but without new clean energy, the old boiler must stay open and continue to emit greenhouse gases. The facility’s electricity use is estimated to double in the event it decarbonizes using some combination of an electric boiler and high temperature heat pump.
Tasmania’s ability to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions targets depends on expanding renewable energy infrastructure in the right places. Currently, only 40% of the state’s total energy consumption is renewable. This shortfall presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the economy. By building more renewable energy, Tasmania can reduce its overall dependence on fossil fuels, reduce fuel costs, create jobs, and open huge economic opportunities. This state has the chance to secure its place as a leader in low-carbon innovation by transitioning rapidly to a clean energy future as the world phases out fossil fuels.
Jack Redpath is the Principal at Carbon Zero Initiative
